Same average return. Two very different retirements.
The order your returns arrive in matters as much as their average. Below are two real historical starting years, automatically matched to have nearly identical average annual returns — watch what happens anyway.
Your numbers
$
30 yrs
Withdrawal rate
Portfolio allocation
Rebalanced to these weights every year at no assumed cost. Bonds get whatever's left of the 100%.
80%
0%
80% stocks · 0% gold · 20% bonds
Rebalanced to these weights every year.
Auto-matched
Auto-match looks for the pair with the closest average returns and the most different outcomes at your current settings, excluding pairs of years too close together to really differ — it changes as you adjust allocation, withdrawal rate, or horizon above.
Only starting years with a complete, real 30-year run through 2025 are selectable — no splicing onto an unrelated era. At this horizon, that's 1928–1996.
Sequence A1928
Average annual return: +5.7%
Survived — ended at $1,488,806
First 10 years
+38
Y1
-6
Y2
-17
Y3
-29
Y4
+5
Y5
+48
Y6
-2
Y7
+35
Y8
+25
Y9
-31
Y10
Cumulative years 1–10: +35.2%
Sequence B1929
Average annual return: +5.5%
Survived — ended at $273,023
Came within $247,583 in year 29 — that low, the fixed withdrawal was running at over 4x the original rate against what remained.
First 10 years
-6
Y1
-17
Y2
-29
Y3
+5
Y4
+48
Y5
-2
Y6
+35
Y7
+25
Y8
-31
Y9
+27
Y10
Cumulative years 1–10: +24.7%
Portfolio balance over time
Solid = Sequence A, dashed = Sequence B. Color shows outcome — green survived, rust depleted. Dashed reference line marks 25% of the starting portfolio, the point where a fixed withdrawal starts consuming the balance at more than 4x its original rate.
Sequence A — 1928
Sequence B — 1929
Both sequences draw the same fixed real dollar amount every year, from the same starting balance, at the same allocation — nothing adjusts along the way. That's deliberate: it isolates what the order of returns alone does. A guardrail strategy that cuts spending in bad years would change this outcome — see "Sequence-of-Returns Risk" and "Asset Allocation" for that layer.
Disclaimer
This tool replays real historical market years, not a prediction of future ones. It's built to make a single mechanism visible — that the order of returns matters, not just their average — not to forecast what will happen to any actual portfolio. Nothing here is financial, tax, or legal advice, and it isn't a substitute for one. Before making significant financial decisions, consult a qualified financial planner, tax advisor, or other licensed professional who can account for your complete situation.